The Keys to the White House: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next PresidentWith The Keys to the White House, average citizens are giving the pollsters and pundits a run for their money. In this book prominent political analyst and historian Allan J. Lichtman presents thirteen historical factors, or "keys" (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections. In the chronological, successful application of these keys to every election since 1860-including the 2000 election where Al Gore was predicted to and did indeed win the popular vote, and the 2004 contest for Bush's reelection-Lichtman dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. Scholars of the electoral process, their students, and general readers who want to get a head-start on calling Decision 2008 should not miss this book. |
Contents
Logic of the Keys | 1 |
Turning the Keys to the Presidency | 19 |
Civil War and Reconstruction | 49 |
The Gilded Age | 65 |
Rise and Fall of Progressivism | 81 |
Depression War and Cold War | 99 |
New Directions War and Scandal | 123 |
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achieve American ballots Bill Clinton campaign candidate Carter Challenging-party nominee Cleveland Clinton Congress conservative contest key convention defeat deficit Despite domestic economy key Eisenhower elec electoral college electoral votes executive party expand failure favor federal foreign foreign-policy gained George Bush Gerald Ford Harry Truman Herbert Hoover Hoover House seats incumbency key incumbent administration incumbent party Incumbent-party nominee initiatives Jimmy Carter Johnson Kennedy Key 9 La Follette lacked leader legislation long-term economy key lost major mandate key midterm elections military Negative keys Nixon nomination party in power party's percent Perot policy change policy-change key political keys polls popular vote prediction presidential elections programs recession reelection Richard Nixon Ronald Reagan Roosevelt scandal key second term secured Key Senate short-term economy key social unrest social-unrest key southern Soviet Taft Theodore Roosevelt tion Truman turn Key Vice President victory voters White House William Jennings Bryan win rate